A new Gartner report predicts that nations aiming for "digital sovereignty" must be prepared to invest at least 1% of their GDP into domestic AI infrastructure by 2029. The analyst firm forecasts this push will lead to 35% of countries becoming locked into region-specific AI platforms by 2027, a massive jump from just 5% today.
Building digital walls: The trend is a direct response to the dominance of the "closed U.S. model," with geopolitical pressures and national security concerns driving governments to accelerate spending. The goal is to create domestic AI stacks—from computing power to data centers—that are aligned with local laws and culture rather than relying on American tech giants.
Hardware is the new hard part: This investment isn't just for software; it's about forging the physical hardware layer of a national ecosystem. For an economy the size of the UK, the 1% figure translates to a staggering £30 billion ($39 billion). Gartner VP Analyst Gaurav Gupta predicts an "explosive build-up" of data centers and "AI factories," which could propel the few companies controlling these new stacks to "double-digit, trillion-dollar valuations."
Culture over cloud: "Trust and cultural fit are emerging as key criteria. Decision makers are prioritizing AI platforms that align with local values, regulatory frameworks, and user expectations over those with the largest training datasets," according to Gartner's Gaurav Gupta.
The push for sovereign AI signals a move toward a more fragmented and expensive global tech landscape. While this could foster new regional tech champions, it also risks creating a "splinternet" of walled-off ecosystems, reducing collaboration and duplicating efforts on a massive scale.
